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by Lewis Jones, football journalist
19:13 UK time, Sunday 10 December 2023
Our guide Jones Nose is targeting the Premier League ticket, predicting Manchester City will narrowly beat Luton on Sunday.
Everton vs Chelsea, Sunday, 2pm
If you remove the points deduction, Everton will be higher than Chelsea in the Premier League table – and that’s no coincidence.
Sean Dyche has made his team play honest and dangerous football. Chelsea’s name and strong attacking standards continue to be heavily factored into head-to-head match prices. The away win is trading at 5/4 with Sky Bet here. This seems woefully short.
Everton, if they are able to bounce back from their impressive 3-0 win over Newcastle, look worth risking a no-bet draw at 6/5.
Raheem Sterling’s direct dribbling and ability to extract fouls and yellow cards from opponents remains a sustainable advantage that can be exploited. Diogo Dalot’s booking on Wednesday night for a foul on Sterling took his tally to 13 bookings from rivals. It’s a shameful number – six more than any other player. This obviously leaves Everton’s full-backs extremely vulnerable to the cards, so depending on where Sterling stands, the 5/1 bet with Sky Bet for Vitaliy Mikulenko to pick up the card is definitely a runner.
Predicted score: 2-1
Fulham vs West Ham, Sunday, 2pm
West Ham is a team that boggles my mind.
Performance remains mediocre and David Moyes’ future looks in doubt beyond this season, but they are just three points behind Tottenham and Manchester United. It’s certainly an outperformer – as evidenced by a predicted score model that puts it seven points higher than its underlying metrics. Only Manchester United excels in performing to a higher level. I have no idea how this is going to go. It is best to play lots then.
Alex Iwobi is not respected by the market as he is offered at 14/1 with Sky Bet to open the scoring. Marco Silva is a master at lighting fire and making his players feel unstoppable, and that’s certainly the case with the usually shy Iwobi, who takes on some impressive positions in the Fulham line-up as evidenced by his 10 shots and three goals. In his last three matches at home. His hot streak in front of goal may continue.
Predicted score: 1-1
Luton v Manchester City, Sunday at 2pm, live on Sky Sports – play the Super 6 here!
The Luton corner lines of Kenilworth Road remain imbued with value.
Rob Edwards knows that his team must play from set pieces by getting the ball into the opposition box quickly to create situations to win corners on the wings or free kicks by playing at a high pace. At home, their number of corner kicks has been very healthy, averaging 7.4 corner kicks per game at Kenilworth Road last season – a figure bettered only by West Brom in the Championship.
Promotion to the Premier League has not affected their production much so far, as they have won 42 corner kicks across their seven matches, at a rate of six corner kicks per 90 minutes.
Therefore, the offer of 10/11 with Sky Bet on offer for them to win just three corners or more is very generous.
Manchester City are not their usual selves – and this can be seen by the number of corner kicks they take. They have conceded 26 corner kicks in their last four games for an average of 6.5 per game, as their usual ability to suffocate the opposition through possession of the football has decreased, allowing them to be more vulnerable to counter-attacks on their own goal. I can see them getting an unexciting win, but I would focus more on the number of Luton corner kicks.
Predicted score: 0-1 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Luton will win by three or more corner kicks (10/11 with Sky Bet – bet here!)
Tottenham v Newcastle, Sunday at 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – play the Super 6 here!
Newcastle looked to be in a state of exhaustion at Goodison Park, and there is little time for a break for this stretched-out side.
Just two wins from their last 13 away games in all competitions doesn’t inspire much confidence at 2/1 with Sky Bet for an away win. In addition, Eddie Howe will also have one eye on the clash with Milan on Wednesday, so he may tweak his already reshuffled line-up to maintain some energy levels for that huge night. However, it is difficult to trust Spurs at 23/20 to convert their potential regional advantage into goals based on their last two home performances.
Only two goals were scored from 110 touches in the opposition penalty area, 32 of which were shots and on the back of an expected goals tally of 4.2, an indictment of their attackers. Draw it is.
Pedro Porro has been under threat of finding the back of the net this season, and odds of 25/1 with Sky Bet reduce his chances of scoring goals. He has taken seven shots in his last two home games, hitting the post with a try and scoring with two more shots. It may be his turn soon.
Predicted score: 2-2
The Premier League season is in full swing and Tottenham Hotspur is set to have another thrilling match ahead. With their star-studded lineup and impressive form, fans and pundits alike are eagerly anticipating what the team has in store. As the competition heats up, predictions are running wild and the excitement is palpable. With Tottenham’s skillful players and tactical prowess, it’s sure to be another nail-biting game as they aim for victory on the pitch.