It’s been nearly six weeks since the Texas Rangers were crowned 2023 World Series champions, and baseball’s competitive landscape has changed a lot in that time, though perhaps not as much as it has in a typical offseason. Last week’s winter meetings were relatively low-keyand you can count on one hand the number of notable free agents who have changed teams.
Fortunately, the vacation period is not over yet. There is plenty of time for free agents to find new teams and trade partners to come together and make deals. With that in mind, here’s where the hot stove stands in the wake of the Winter Meetings.
Biggest moves yet
In all likelihood, the biggest trade deal and biggest free agent signing has already been done. The Yankees landed Juan Soto In a seven-player trade with The Padres last week, then the Dodgers signed Shohei Ohtani to a record 10-year contract worth $700 million during the Weekend. Due to major postponements It wouldn’t actually be $700 millionBut that’s still a lot of millions.
Here are the other notable moves we’ve seen so far this season:
This isn’t a full accounting of the season, of course, but those were the highest-impact moves so far. This list is expected to grow significantly in the next two weeks or so, especially with free agents looking to secure new contracts for themselves before the holidays. With Ohtani and Soto now off the board, the trade and free agent markets should really start moving.
The best free agents available
Only eight of the top 50 free agents have signed, including only three in the top ten, led by No. 1 Ohtani of course. This isn’t the greatest free agent class we’ve ever seen, so it’s no surprise the market is moving slowly. Here are our top 10 unsigned free agents:
- RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto
- 1B/CF Cody Bellinger
- 3B Matt Chapman
- LHP Blake Snell
- RHP Marcus Stroman
- RHP Lucas Giolito
- LHP Jordan Montgomery
- CF Kevin Kiermaier
- 1B Rhys Hoskins
- LHP Josh Hader
Yamamoto will begin in-person meetings with MLB teams this week and is expected to make a decision within two weeks or so, though there’s really no rush. Its 45-day publishing window does not close until January 4th.
Things were pretty quiet around Bellinger, Chapman, Snell and every player other than the aforementioned Yamamoto. Teams that missed Ohtani and Soto will turn their attention to Bellinger, and teams that missed Yamamoto will have no choice but to bring in Snell, Stroman and others to meet their promotional needs.
There are deals to be had in free agency this offseason, and they always are, but good luck finding them. This class has a way of making Bs sound like As and Cs sound like Bs, if you catch my drift.
Top remaining trade candidates
Obviously, Soto was The best player available on the trade market. This is especially true with the Angels drafting Mike Trout Outside the trade blockNot that the trout trade seemed likely at all. Instead of ranking the remaining top trade candidates, we’ll drop them into groups. here they are:
- Rental Beginnings: RHP Shane Bieber (Guardians), RHP Corbin Burns (Brewers), RHP Tyler Glasnow (Rays)
- Controllable beginners: RHP Dylan Cease (White Sox), RHP Bryce Miller (Mariners), RHP Brian Waugh (Mariners)
- Bull arms: RHP Emmanuel Clase (Guardians), RHP Hunter Harvey (Nationals), RHP Gregory Santos (White Sox)
- Early bat players: SS Willie Adams (Brewers), 2B Jonathan India (Reds), 3B Isaac Paredes (Rays), 2B/3B Jorge Polanco (Twins)
- Pitch masher: Randy Arozarena (Rays), Max Kepler (Twins), Harold Ramirez (Rays)
- Zombies without a place: DH Eloy Jimenez (White Sox), DH Christopher Morell (Cubs)
- Reclamation projects: Dylan Carlson (Cardinals), RHP Alec Manuah (Blue Jays)
There are certainly a lot of Rays players out there, but that’s the nature of the beast. They acquire players, get two or three good seasons out of them, and then replace them with younger players once they become too expensive through arbitration. Arozarena and Paredes are at that point now, and Glasnow is due $25 million in 2024. That would make him the Rays’ highest-paid player ever.
At this point I would say that stopping is the biggest prize in the trading market. He has amazing ability – we saw that in 2022 – and he has another two years of control of the team left. Bieber, Burns and Glasnow will all be free agents next offseason. They’re all obviously very good, although that extra year of dominance makes Cease a more desirable player.
The trade market is more flexible than the free agent market. The list of free agents is what it is. Players can unexpectedly land on the trading block at any time. Who’s to say the Mets won’t seriously shop Pete Alonso if it becomes clear that an extension won’t happen? Count on one or two players to make surprise appearances in trade rumors in the coming weeks.
Top storylines
Ohtani’s free agency and how the Yankees will respond to their worst season in three decades were the two biggest stories coming into the offseason, and now we have our answers. There is still a lot to be resolved in the two months between now and spring training. Here are the major storylines remaining in this season.
Yamamoto Yamamoto. It’s pretty clear that Yamamoto is the most attractive player still available this offseason. The former Orix Buffaloes outfielder has yet to pitch in an MLB outfield, but he is only 25 years old and has the talent to pitch at or near the top of the big league. All major market contenders are expected to meet him this week, and Yamamoto is increasingly likely to receive a $300 million contract. That’s why it will be a good investment.
Other international stars. Yamamoto isn’t the only high-profile international player to move to MLB this season. Japanese left-hander Shota Imanaga and Korean midfielder Jung Hoo Lee Figure to get contracts that will pay them eight figures a year, particularly the 25-year-old Lee. Cuban right-hander Jariel Rodriguez, Japanese left-handed reliever Yuki Matsui, rookie right-hander Naoyuki Owasawa, and Korean closer Woo-Suk Ju are not highly regarded, but they are available and could help a major league team.
Who is left out in a game of musical chairs? The demand for promotion greatly exceeds the supply in this season. There simply aren’t enough beginners. Only one team can sign Yamamoto — the Dodgers and Yankees are seen as the front runners even after landing Ohtani and Soto, respectively — and there aren’t many No. 1-2 types available. A lot of teams are looking for multiple starters this offseason, oh my gosh, that’s going to be tough. Gibson and Lynn aren’t the sexiest names, but the Cardinals were smart to act early to get the exposure they needed.
Where do the Blue Jays go now? The Blue Jays tried hard for Ohtani and the obvious backup plan was Soto. Now neither is available. Bellinger would be a perfect fit given Toronto’s need for a left-handed hitting center fielder, though they have yet to call him up this offseason, and it’s unclear how willing they are to invest in a non-Ohtani free agent this winter. This started out as a very promising season for the Blue Jays. Now they are trying to save things.
The Cubs, Giants, Mets and Red Sox. Boston essentially replaced Verdugo with Tyler O’Neill, and the Mets added Luis Severino, otherwise it’s been a quiet season for four clubs that kind of need great seasons. Chicago finished a game outside the wild-card bracket this year and wants to get over the hump in 2024. The Giants have fallen to 10th in the National League in attendance and are trying to shake off the “can’t sign stars” label. The Red Sox have finished last three times in the past four seasons. The Mets want to move in the right direction after performing so poorly this year that they were sold at the deadline. This is an important season for all four teams and they are yet to hit the ground running.
Sailors and whatever they do. I’m not going to lie, I’m confused about the holiday season in Seattle so far. They are clearly looking to cut back on the number of strikes, hence the Eugenio Suarez and Kelenic trades, and not risk the qualifying offer with Teoscar Hernandez. They also threw big money into trading Suarez and using Kelenic to offload Marco Gonzalez and Evan White. How exactly will they replace the missing crime? How will they spend the money? The Mariners missed the playoffs this year after ending a 20-year playoff drought last year. It feels like another shoe has to drop this winter, otherwise it wouldn’t really make sense.
Season extension. There has already been one significant stretch this offseason: Brewers top prospect Jackson Chorio He signed a historic $82 million deal before he even played his first MLB game. February and March are when most rollovers occur. Teams use November, December and January to improve their roster, then focus on retaining their players for spring training. Extension candidates next spring could include Max Fried (Braves), Justin Steele (Cubs), Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez (Astros), and Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals), among others.
Sport mode is worn out. Diamond Sports Group, which runs Bally Sports’ various regional networks, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy earlier this year, and is currently sorting out which teams it wants to keep, and which ones it wants to drop (like the D-backs and Padres this summer). The Guardians and World Series champion Rangers are reportedly at risk of losing their local TV deal. MLB took over broadcasting in Arizona and San Diego this season, though that is a temporary solution. Financial uncertainty regarding Bally Sports teams has already affected the market and will continue to do so until new television deals are in place. This is the dark cloud currently hanging over the sport.
As the MLB offseason continues to unfold, there are still a number of big names remaining in free agency and on the trade block. With several marquee players still available, the hot stove is set to heat up in the coming weeks as teams look to solidify their rosters for the upcoming season. In addition to the top names still up for grabs, there are also a number of intriguing storylines to keep an eye on, from potential blockbuster trades to the impact of the ongoing lockout on player movement. Here’s a closer look at the key players and storylines to watch as the offseason progresses.