Want to know the latest trends, fixtures and injury news in football? We got you. Want to know where the public has money this week? We got you. Want to know what teams to play, who to include in DFS, or who to draft in your Eliminator deck? We got you there too. Here’s everything you need to know as you prepare for your fantasy football matchups and potential matchup bets this weekend. Odds by ESPN Betting.
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American Football Association: Injury updates | Matches to exploit | Eliminator Challenge | DFS plays| Edges Analytics | Work report | Confidence gathering choices Pig skin bekim
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College football
David Purdom’s work report
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A streak of 16 consecutive declines in Army and Navy The games were shut out last season in the Black Knights’ 20-17 win that went over a total of 32 points, the lowest in the competition in more than a decade. The total for Saturday’s Army-Navy game was less than that. It was 27.5 on ESPN BET on Thursday, which would be tied for the second-lowest total of any game in the ESPN Stats & Information database. Only this year’s Iowa-Nebraska matchup (25.5) is lower. Early action was split on the Army-Navy total this week, with DraftKings reporting that 54% of bets were on the high side, while 62% of the money wagered was on the low side. The game will be held at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts, where the forecast was for temperatures in the mid-50s with light winds.
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Make an early bet on Alabama Crimson Tide-Michigan Wolverines The playoff semifinal was lopsided over the underdog Crimson Tide. On Thursday, both FanDuel and DraftKings reported over 87% of the money wagered on the Rose Bowl was in Alabama. Michigan opened as high as a 2.5-point favorite, but the line dropped to -1.5 at the start of the week. Bettors were also backing the underdog in the other semi-final between Washington And he preferred Texas, but the early action was not as lopsided as it was in Alabama. At DraftKings, the underdog Huskies attracted nearly 66% of the money bet on the game’s point spread. Texas was unanimously favored by four points.
ESPN Analytics’ Seth Walder’s biggest edges
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Black Army Knights (-3) vs. Marines: It’s really a game of stay away because FPI is so close to the market. But with only a game this weekend, if you’re looking to bet on a side, the pattern is leaning toward Army, which makes it a roughly 4-point favorite instead of 3. Army ranks 95th in overall efficiency this season; The Navy is ranked 117th.
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Texas Longhorns win National Championship (+275): This is another very tight value, but if you want to pick a team to win it all, the FPI prices the Longhorns at +248. Even though Texas is the third-best team in the playoffs, Texas (FPI Rank: 7) has the advantage of facing the worst team in Washington (FPI Rank: 13), making it easy to reach the semifinals.
NFL
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Is Sunday’s game against the Eagles a must-see for the Cowboys?
Jeff Saturday and Domonique Foxworth underscore the importance of Sunday’s NFC East battle against the Eagles for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys.
Stefania Bell injury update.
Matt Bowen faces off for exploitation
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Jordan Love’s production on the concepts of play and movement: In Love’s past two games, wins over the Lions and Chiefs, he has completed 21 of 26 passes for 287 yards and two touchdowns on play-action concepts. Look for Matt LaFleur to call for more play-action throws (especially on early downs) Monday night versus the Giants, which will create scheme holes for Love to boost his passing total.
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Zach Moss vs. Bengals front end: Moss averaged just 2.7 yards per carry against the Titans in Week 13, but saw 19 rushing attempts. With an even better matchup on Sunday against a Bengals defense that allows 4.8 yards per carry, second most in the league, I expect a heavy day for Moss. This includes touches inside the low red zone.
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For more details, see Matt Bowen’s Film Room.
Mike Clay’s tip for the Remover Challenge
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Houston Texans (at New York Jets): With five weeks left to play, we still have a few premium teams left to use (Chiefs, Eagles, 49ers), but we have better chances to use all of them in the final month. This week, we have two up-and-coming teams to choose from in the Texans (at the Jets) and the Packers (at the Giants), and you can really go either way on this one (both opened as 6.5-point favorites). I have Houston (83%) with a better win probability than Green Bay (74%), so the Texans get the nod, but pick your poison!
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Also be sure to check out Clay’s Eliminator Challenge cheat sheet (updated weekly) and find other tips for Week 14 here.
Al Zeidenfeld’s plays DFS
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As is the case most weeks this season, the biggest values on DraftKings are running backs. Zack Moss ($5900), Joe Mixon ($6,100), Sesame Robinson ($6,200) are all very cheap, even Christian McCaffrey ($9,200) The pip value is expected to be very good at its hefty price. Wrapping the double stack and returning players around the value going back is a great way to get inconsistency in tournaments, with the 49ers building double stacks around it Brooke PurdyEfficiency ($6,500) or the piles of Bengals you lean on Jake Browning ($5200) and Jamar ChaseThe combined discount ($7,600) is the methods I want to rely on this week.
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More DFS plays here.
ESPN Analytics’ Seth Walder’s biggest edges
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TJ Edwards 3.5+ assists (+105): If you’re looking for an obscure prop with value to bet on, look no further. Edwards has crossed that line in eight of 12 games this season and faces a run-heavy Lions team that will likely advance (and therefore run more). All of this works in the overs’ favor, and I expect 4.5 assisted tackles for the Chicago Bears linebacker.
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Jalen hurts more than 0.5 interceptions (-120): Damage’s interception rate is slightly above average this season. The Dallas Cowboys defense has recorded 13 interceptions (third most) and the Philadelphia Eagles are underdogs by 3.5 points. It’s surprising, considering who we’re talking about, but if you put these facts together, the choice is more likely to be made. Typical price is over -137.
David Purdom’s work report
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Point spread on Buffalo Bills-Kansas City Chiefs The game opened as high as -3.5 for Kansas City on Sunday. But the streak quickly fell after the Chiefs’ primetime loss to the Packers. “Some Bills money pushed it to -1.5,” Chris Varges, senior director of trading risk at Fanatics Sportsbook, told ESPN. “Since the number has stabilized there, we have seen balanced betting on both sides.”
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The weather is expected to impact multiple games on Sunday. Cleveland is expected to experience strong winds and heavy rain The Cleveland Browns host the Jacksonville Jaguars. The total opened the game high at 40 but dropped quickly after Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence injured his ankle in a loss to the Bengals on Monday. With both teams potentially starting backup quarterbacks, plus the weather, the total dropped to a consensus of 30.5 as of Thursday. Additional rides with potential inclement weather include: Houston Texans at New York Jets. Rain is expected in New York, with southeast winds gusting to 19 mph. The total had reached 39 earlier in the week, but was at the consensus of 33 as of Thursday. Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore may have the worst weather of any game on Sunday. The forecast calls for a 94% chance of rain with 20 mph winds blowing from the southeast. The total dropped from 45 to 39.5 on Thursday.
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The line is on Philadelphia Eagles – Dallas Cowboys The game rose from the key number of 3 early in the week. Dallas was a 3.5-point favorite as of Thursday, with sportsbooks mandating an increased power (-115 or -120) for betting on the underdog Eagles.
Anita Marks NFL Confidence Group Picks
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Carolina Panthers +5 (at New Orleans Saints): The Saints are 0-5 ATS at home, and Jameis Winston is expected to start against a good defense for the Panthers — with a new coaching staff. Carolina is finding success in its running game and will keep this game close.
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Houston Texans -3 (at New York Jets): The Jets return Zach Wilson at QB, which is not an upgrade, and they are playing poorly at home. The Texans will stack the box and force Wilson to make plays – which he won’t do.
Tyler Fulgum’s Pigskin Pick’em plays
Home teams were just 3-10 ATS in Week 13. In many cases, those home teams were the underdogs, but still – just a 1-6 SU and ATS record for the Home Dogs last week – that’s very concerning. I’ll be relying on bounce for local teams across the league this week. Of the 15 games we’ll see this week, I’ll pick the home team (regardless of points) to win outright in 12 of those games. Four of these teams are underdogs. Good luck in Week 14 of Pigskin Pick’em!