I have some good news and bad news for the remaining 14 teams with losing records that have not been eliminated from contention in the playoffs.
The good news. There are six teams from 6 to 7 in the NFC so two or three of you can sneak in. AFC is not going to happen.
Bad news. No team has ever reached the Super Bowl with a losing record this season.
However, can the pair make the playoffs and win a game or two? definitely. I’ve provided SportsLine’s projections on playoff chances and strength of schedule below as well as my assessment of which teams are most likely to fall below .500 to make the playoffs:
1. Rams (6-7)
Need to know
- 29.9% chance of making the playoffs
- Easiest 14th table remaining (against WSH, against NO, at NYG, at SF)
- Matthew Stafford has 10 TD passes in the last three games
I’m riding the hot hand of Matthew Stafford and the Rams’ easy schedule for the next three games. Stafford leads the NFL with 10 touchdown passes in the past three weeks, and the Rams have three straight 30-point games in that span, including back-to-backs against the Browns and Ravens defenses. They represent the two best offensive performances this season against the Browns and Ravens in terms of EPA per game. Not bad because Cleveland had the No. 1 overall defense and Baltimore had the No. 1 scoring defense in those games.
The key to Los Angeles was health. They are averaging 6.72 yards per game with Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nakoa on the field this season. For reference, that would rank third in the league this year behind the 49ers and Dolphins, who are having historic years on offense. The point is that the Rams are dangerous when healthy and can ride this offense to wins over the Leaders, Saints and Giants in the next three games, earning them a nine-game winning streak and a trip to the playoffs.
Need to know
- 45.6% chance of making the playoffs
- 7th easiest remaining schedule (vs. TB, in CAR, in MIN, vs. CHI)
- The smallest team in the NFL
I expect the Packers and Rams to take the last two wild card spots and for the Vikings to finish 1-3 and miss the playoffs after moving on for Nick Mullens, their fourth starter this season. Jordan Love had played as a top-10 QB for the past month leading up to the disappointment of the NFL’s youngest team against the Giants. My confidence will be higher but Green Bay could be slowed without Christian Watson, who injured his hamstring in the Week 13 win over the Chiefs. The pivotal matchup will be Week 17 at Minnesota, but I’d prefer Love over Nick Mullens or Joshua Dobbs.
Need to know
- 53.5% chance of making the playoffs
- 15th hardest table remaining (in GB, vs. JAX, vs. NO, in CAR)
- He won two matches in a row after losing six out of seven
The Buccaneers are my pick for the least bad team in their division. If all three NFC South teams finish 8-9, Tampa will win the tiebreaker. They have enough in their tank to win one of their next three games (at Packers, vs. Jaguars, vs. Saints) before the season finale against Carolina. Who would have thought Baker Mayfield would start a playoff game after bouncing between four teams last year?
Need to know
- 25.3% chance of making the playoffs
- The remaining easiest sixth table (in CAR, in IND, in CHI, in NO)
- Desmond Ryder has committed 13 turnovers in his last nine games
The Falcons can set the pace with NFC South wins over the Panthers and Colts in their next two games, but ultimately I think they’ll lose road games at Chicago and New Orleans to finish the season with an 8-9 record at best. The defense has put up 180 points in Atlanta compared to last season, but they still have a bottom-10 offense and Desmond Rieder is turning the ball over a lot. If I’m wrong, it would be because Bijan Robinson and Drake London give the Falcons enough offense to finish 9-8.
5. Saints (6-7)
Need to know
- 42.3% chance of making the playoffs
- 8th Easiest Table Remaining (vs. NYG, at LAR, at TB, vs. ATL)
- 3-0 vs. Panthers/Patriots and 3-7 vs. everyone else this season
The NFC South is a seesaw between three 6-7 teams that have been inconsistent all season with mediocre (at best) quarterback play. Entering the year I thought the Saints would be good enough to win the division with Derek Carr, but he proved to be less than Andy Dalton last year. New Orleans would likely split its final four games and finish 8-9 but lose the tiebreaker. They have already lost to Atlanta and Tampa Bay this year and have a worse division record than each team, which could ultimately drag them down. New Orleans can hold out hope that Derek Carr can help the Raiders win their final four games after a 6-7 start in the playoffs in 2021, but that was against Nick Mullens, Drew Lock, Carson Wentz and Justin Herbert in the final month.
Need to know
- 31.3% chance of making the playoffs
- The 13th easiest remaining schedule (vs. PHI in TEN vs. PIT in ARZ)
- They lost four straight games for the first time under Pete Carroll
The Seahawks have lost four straight games and their brutal schedule continues Monday with a home game against the Eagles, who may be poised for a bounce-back win. Geno Smith wasn’t 100 percent after missing Sunday’s game against the 49ers (groin) and the defense proved to be an aberration after leading the NFL in points allowed on October vs. Cupcake schedule. If Seattle loses one of two to the Titans and Steelers, their playoff hopes are likely over. Now I give the Vikings, Packers and Rams a better chance at getting the sixth or seventh seed in the NFC.
Need to know
- 2.4% chance of making the playoffs
- 12th Easiest Table Remaining (at CLE, vs. ARZ, vs. ATL, at GB)
- 5-4 from the start 0-4
On Monday, I wrote about how the Bears could become the first team in 50 years to reach the playoffs and have the top pick in the draft (courtesy of Carolina). Here’s what should happen:
Holds the road to the playoffs
- Win
- The Giants don’t win
- Vikings lose three of four (at least)
- Both the Seahawks and Rams have lost at least twice
- Two Buccaneers, Falcons and Saints have lost at least twice
That’s why he’s not crazy. Justin Fields is third in the NFL in passer rating since Week 4, and the Bears’ defense has allowed the lowest passer rating while intercepting the most passes since Week 10. The Montez Sweat trade pays early dividends, and Chicago is now one fall short of a playoff spot. Spot in the NFC.
If these trends continue and the Bears upset the Browns in Cleveland on Sunday, the way is set for Chicago to become just the second team in NFL history to make the playoffs after an 0-4 start (1992 Chargers). They have the schedule to do it, and their biggest challenge is a Week 18 game at Lambeau Field.
8. Giants (5-8)
Need to know
- 2.1% chance of making the playoffs
- 4th hardest remaining table (in NO, in PHI, in LAR, in PHI)
- He won three straight games after a 2-8 start
The legend of Tommy DeVito may be unparalleled if the Giants become the first team in NFL history to make the playoffs after a 2-8 start. It was one of the best stories of the second half of the year and DeVito could become the first undrafted QB to win four straight starts on Sunday in New Orleans. Maybe that’s where the fun ends and the painful reality sets in that this three-game winning streak cost the Giants a top-five pick in 2024.
9. Airplanes (5-8)
Need to know
- 0.1% chance of making the playoffs
- 14th toughest table remaining (in MIA, vs WSH, in CLE, vs NE)
- Fewest offensive tackles in the NFL this season (13)
If the Jets can get past the Dolphins in Miami on Sunday, there’s little chance they win their final three games against the Commanders, Browns and Patriots. It is also possible that Aaron Rodgers could return to manage the arrangement. That’s a lot of “ifs” though. I don’t think they’ll get past the Dolphins on Sunday despite Miami having a blast on the offensive line, because the 30 points New York got on Sunday were a fluke (it also netted AFC Player of the Year honors from Zach Wilson). I don’t think Aaron Rodgers will return, and the Patriots could play spoiler in Week 18, as they have won 15 straight games against the Jets. A 9-8 record may not get the Jets into the playoffs with six 7-6 teams in the AFC right now.
10. Giants (5-8)
Need to know
- 0.1% chance of making the playoffs
- 10th easiest remaining table (vs. HOU, vs. SEA, in HOU, vs. JAX)
- Won in Week 14 after trailing by 14 points with three minutes left in the game
The Titans are not dead yet! They made a stunning season-saving run at Miami on Monday and can keep their season alive against the Texans on Sunday, who could start Davis Mills. Will Levis has injected some life into Tennessee but they will not lead the standings in their final three games against the Seahawks, Texans and Jaguars.
11. Raiders (5-8)
Need to know
- 0.6% chance of making the playoffs
- 16th hardest remaining schedule (vs. LAC, in KC, in IND, vs. DEN)
- 30 points were scored during a three-game losing streak
The Raiders have lost three straight games since winning their first two under interim coach Antonio Pierce. The honeymoon is over and reality has begun with Aidan O’Connell at quarterback. Las Vegas has scored just 30 points in its last three games, including none in a 3-0 loss to the Vikings in Week 14. They may beat Easton Stick and the Chargers on Thursday Night Football, but that’s about it. They should be in a position to draft their quarterback of the future in 2024.
12. Leaders (4-9)
Need to know
- 0.0% chance of making the playoffs
- Hardest schedule remaining (in LAR, in NYJ, vs. SF, vs. DAL)
- He allowed 150 points during a four-game losing streak
The Leaders will have to win and get a lot of help, which won’t happen with this defense. They have allowed 150 points during their four-game losing streak and 45 points in back-to-back games. The last time they did either was in 1954. They still have their starter, Sam Howell, which is why they rank higher than the Chargers, but that’s all they got after mailing in the season by trading Chase Young and Montez. He sweats. They finished the season versus the 49ers and Cowboys which is a guarantee that they won’t run the table.
13. Chargers (5-8)
Need to know
- 0.5% chance of making the playoffs
- 7th toughest remaining schedule (at LV, vs. BUF, at DEN, vs. KC)
- Justin Herbert is out for the season
Stick a fork in it. The Chargers are done with Justin Herbert out for the season (surgery on broken finger). Los Angeles has scored seven points or fewer in back-to-back games, showing no life as it has given up four of five as it heads toward the finish line. It’s only a matter of time before coach Brandon Staley gets the pink slip.
Need to know
- 0.0% chance of making the playoffs
- 3rd toughest schedule remaining (vs. SF, at CHI, at PHI, vs. SEA)
- 2-2 since Kyler Murray’s return
The Cardinals will officially be eliminated from playoff contention once they lose to the 49ers at home on Sunday. But hey, just for kicks, here are the nine things that need to happen for Arizona to reach the playoffs:
Cardinals’ path to the playoffs:
- The Cardinals win
- Rams win (No. 6 seed, 10-7)
- Giants, Vikings, Leaders lose
- Packers finished 7-10 (Vikings to beat)
- Buccaneers finish 7-10 (Packers should beat)
- Falcons finish 7-10 (should lose to Bears)
- Seahawks finished 7-10 (should lose to Cardinals)
- Bears finish 7-10 (Falcons and Packers to beat)
- Saints win NFC South 9-8
The NFL season is at its midway point and there are several teams sitting below the .500 mark, vying for a spot in the playoffs. As the season progresses, the likelihood of these teams making it to the postseason becomes more and more uncertain. One team facing an uphill battle is Tommy DeVito’s Giants, who have had a tough start to the season. With a demanding schedule ahead, the Giants will need to overcome numerous obstacles in order to secure a spot in the playoffs. Let’s take a closer look at where the Giants rank among the under .500 teams and their chances of making a playoff push.