The Pac-12’s most successful regular season in years didn’t resonate with postseason oddsmakers.
Combine several tough matchups with significant quarterback attrition (hello, USC and Oregon State) and the conference is favored in only half of its eight bowls.
That’s after posting a 29-7 record in non-conference games from September through November.
But the underdog role creates the opportunity for positive upsets, especially in matchups against notable foes Notre Dame, Oklahoma and Texas.
To the choices:
(Note: All picks are against the spread. Lines are taken from BetMGM via VegasInsider.com.)
Saturday
Los Angeles Bowl: UCLA vs. Boise State
Starting: 4:30 pm (ABC)
Line: UCLA -4 (Total: 48.5)
comment: Things got worse for the Bruins after a season-ending loss to Cal with a large number of players and staff departing. (For example, Star edge rusher Laiatu Latu opted into the game.) As a result, we avoid them at all costs in the LA Bowl. Meanwhile, Boise State snapped a four-game winning streak and is turning around Solana Beach native Spencer Danielson, who was recently promoted from interim to permanent head coach. One team has a lot of motivation. The other has nothing. The Mountain West also went 2-0 against the Pac-12 in the LA Bowl.
He chooses: Boise State
Independence Bowl: Cal vs. Texas Tech
Starting: 6:15 PM (ESPN)
Line: Calories +2.5 (Total: 57.5)
comment: Like UCLA, the Golden Bears have been hit hard by staff and player defections. Unlike UCLA, they finished the season with momentum and united around quarterback Fernando Mendoza. (Bowball games are as much about desire as talent.) Cal’s opponent was 6-6 in a lower conference, the Big 12, and was beaten 57-7 in the regular-season finale. This feels like the end of 2019 again for the Bears, and that’s a good thing for coach Justin Wilcox.
He chooses: Cal
Utah defensive tackle Junior Tavona (58) reacts after a fumble recovery.
(Rick Boehmer/Associated Press)
December 23
Las Vegas Bowl: Utah vs. Northwestern
Starting: 4:30 pm (ABC)
Line: Utah -6.5 (Total: 41.5)
comment: The Utes, who once thrived in the postseason, have lost their past four games. That slide began in the 2018 Holiday Bowl with an 11-point loss to their opponent this year. How many wounded will return? We can’t say with any level of certainty. But this much is clear: Northwestern has played well under interim coach David Brown, who was promoted to the permanent position and then named coach of the year.
He chooses: Northwest
The Holiday Bowl pits USC against Louisville.
(KC Alfred/San Diego Union-Tribune)
December 27th
Holiday Bowl: USC vs. Louisville
Starting: 5 p.m. (Fox)
Line: USC +7.5 (Total: 57.5)
comment: The point spread is easily explained: USC will be without quarterback Caleb Williams, who opted out, and lacks an effective defense. However, Louisville is hardly a matchup problem with the Trojans and is coming off a loss in the ACC title game to Florida State. NOTE: Cardinals quarterback Jack Plummer played well against USC last season during his tenure as Cal’s starter. However, we love the Trojans and all that stuff.
He chooses: University of Southern California
Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita (11) throws during an Oct. 7 game.
(Johm McCoy/Associated Press)
December 28
Alamo Bowl: Arizona vs. Oklahoma
Starting: 6:15 PM (ESPN)
Line: Arizona -3 (Total: 62.5)
comment: Another case of quarterback woes is leading the betting line as Oklahoma’s Dillon Gabriel announced his transfer to Oregon, leaving the Sooners to start talented but inexperienced rookie Jackson Arnold. The Wildcats should have most, if not all, of their starters in place after their impressive performances throughout the past offseason. This is one of the most difficult matches to predict. But when in doubt, follow the trend: Arizona State was 10-2 against the spread during the regular season, the best mark in the country.
He chooses: Arizona
Oregon State wide receiver Trevon Bradford (8) celebrates a touchdown.
(Andy Nelson/Associated Press)
December 29
Sun Bowl: Oregon State vs. Notre Dame
Starting: 11 a.m. (CBS)
Line: Oregon +6.5 (Total: 43.5)
comment: The Irish won’t have quarterback Sam Hartman, who opted out, and he couldn’t be more excited about the trip to El Paso. (The standard for success in South Bend is always the CFP.) Meanwhile, the Beavers have lost their head coach and their two best quarterbacks since the end of the regular season. They will have to be highly motivated against a blue-blood opponent, but will OSU’s personnel hold up over four quarters? How will new coach Trent Bray manage the preparations? We are skeptical.
He chooses: Our Lady
Oregon State quarterback Bo Nix carries the game ball off the field after defeating Oregon State.
(Mark Yellen/Associated Press)
January 1
Fiesta Bowl: Oregon vs. Liberty
Starting: 10 AM (ESPN)
Line: Oregon -18.5 (Total: 65.5)
comment: In the space of 48 hours, the Ducks went from hoping for the playoffs to playing Liberty — a massive disappointment by all accounts. (Don’t blame the Fiesta Bowl; the CFP selection committee scheduled the game.) Will Oregon State have any urgency against an undefeated Flames team that has played the weakest schedule in the country? Our hunch: Coach Dan Lanning works his motivational magic. The presence of quarterback Bo Nix certainly gives the Ducks a chance to end an ignominious streak: The loser of the Pac-12 championship has never won a bowl game.
He chooses: Oregon
Sugar Bowl: Washington vs. Texas
Starting: 5:45 PM (ESPN)
Line: Washington +4 (Total: 64.5)
comment: The Longhorns pose matchup issues with UW on a scrimmage-style basis — issues the Huskies have faced only twice this season: in duels with Oregon. Both matches have been decided on the brink, and we expect another exciting finish. Texas State will have massive crowd support, but UW is well-equipped to navigate noisy environments. How will UT quarterback Quinn Ewers respond to pressure? Can UW’s Michael Penix Jr. make all the big plays again? We would love for the Huskies to win however love Husky for coverage.
He chooses: Washington
Direct winners: Boise State, Cal, Northwestern, USC, Arizona, Notre Dame, Oregon and Washington
Five-star special: Freedom is not as good as the previous Group of Five participants in the Grand Bowls.
As the college football postseason approaches, the competition to secure a spot in a bowl game is fierce within the Pac-12 conference. While talent is undoubtedly crucial in college football, the desire and determination of a team can often trump pure skill when it comes to performing in the postseason. With numerous talented teams vying for bowl game berths, the Pac-12 conference is sure to showcase some intense and thrilling matchups. In this article, we will examine the bowl picks for the Pac-12 and explore how desire can ultimately play a significant role in determining the outcome of these postseason games.