The group stage is drawing to a close and after many twists and turns, a group of 16 teams are set for the knockout stage draw which will take place on Monday. But before that, it’s a good time to take a look at some of the teams that have qualified and their numbers to follow for the remainder of the tournament. From historic defenses to associations showing off their strength in the group stage, here are the numbers that could determine the knockout stage.
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Manchester City’s XG team doubles the number of other teams
While this goes without saying, Manchester City produced one of the best performances in the group stage of any team. They may not have had the strongest group, but as Barcelona’s loss to Royal Antwerp showed, the strength of the group doesn’t matter when the team is not focused. After winning the Champions League last season, City now have almost double the expected goal difference compared to other teams in the competition. With a difference of 14.18, City have the highest xG of 17.25 (which they performed on par with scoring 18 goals) and their expected goals against figure is 3.07. While City allowed just seven goals, the eighth-best number in the group stage, some of those goals came from sharp angles that are not expected to be repeated in the knockout stages. If Erling Haaland can return to top form, there is no reason why Manchester City can’t win back-to-back wins.
The Spanish League wins in four sets
For the first time since the 2006-07 season, when Chelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal and Liverpool won their groups, four teams from the same country won their groups as the Spanish teams emerged victorious. Barcelona, Real Madrid, Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid all won their groups while Sevilla couldn’t reach the top five spot, completely missing out on European football by finishing last in their group. This may not be a good history to be a part of, as Milan won the Champions League Final in 2007 as the only non-English team to reach the semi-finals with all the English teams falling short when it mattered most. This is the mantle that Manchester City or Bayern Munich would love to take on if the draw allows them the opportunity.
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Barcelona stinks against a defense that has conceded 17 goals
Losing only two matches in the group stage, Xavi’s men were lucky to win the group due to their head-to-head advantage over Porto. Barcelona suffered the worst Champions League loss to their name, with Royal Antwerp on track to become one of the poorest teams to ever compete in the group stage, conceding 17 goals while winning just one game and losing five times. But with the rotation in the lineup, Barcelona was unable to emerge with a victory in Belgium, and ended the match with ten players after Sergi Roberto was sent off. Barcelona also lost an away match against Shakhtar Donetsk in Germany, and this is a trend that may be a cause for concern in the round of 16, as Barcelona will have to play an away match. Not a team that scores a large number of goals at home, if Barcelona lose the first leg away from home, it could result in a quick exit from the tournament.
Galeino has four goals, but can he score over the others?
Had it not been for losing two games to Barcelona, Porto would have won the group but will be more than happy to book their place in the round of 16. Where things get interesting with their attack is when it comes to the wingers. Brazilian winger Galeño scored four goals in the group stage, but all four were scored against Ukrainian side Shakhtar Donetsk. With only one goal to his name in the league, Galeño needs to envision the other teams he faces as if they were Shakhtar, and if he does, Porto could end up making a big push in the tournament given the talent there.
Real Madrid’s defense xG is worrying
With an xG that is second only to Manchester City at 15.16, Real Madrid can score with anyone in the world. The problem is that they also allowed an xGA of 7.72 because defense is their worst enemy. And against Union Berlin, it showed that David Alaba’s bad removal led to Real conceding a goal, but with the improvement of the attacks they face in the knockout stages, the margin of error will become less. Real Madrid will be considered one of the Champions League title contenders as long as they are in the tournament, but these defensive issues could be their undoing if things do not change soon.
The Champions League knockout phase is looming, with several teams vying for a spot in the next round. As the competition heats up, all eyes are on the numbers that could determine the fate of the teams, with Manchester City looking sharp and poised for success while Real Madrid struggles to find their footing, particularly in defence. With the stakes high and the tournament reaching its decisive stage, the numbers are set to play a crucial role in determining which teams will advance to the next round.