Steve Marcus
Boise State defensive end Cortez Hogans, center, plays with candy after Boise State defeated UNLV 44-20 to win the Mountain West championship football game at Allegiant Stadium on Saturday, Dec. 2, 2023.
Friday, December 15, 2023 | 2 am
The Los Angeles Bowl hosted by Rob Gronkowski Saturday night at SoFi Stadium was supposed to be the main event of the first week of the college football postseason.
It’s got a pair of powerhouse West Coast programs in UCLA and Boise State, the latter of which won the conference championship by defeating UNLV at Allegiant Stadium in the Mountain West final. But much of the shine has faded after both schools lost players to the transfer portal including two standout quarterbacks.
Boise State’s Tylen Green committed to Arkansas earlier this week while UCLA’s Dante Moore is reportedly considering a return to his native Michigan.
The at-bat pairing is a fitting highlight game on the first night of bowl season. This is how all non-College Football Playoff games work.
Analyzing transfer and opt-out gatekeeping and measuring their effects is arguably the most important part of pot disruption. It takes a much different approach than it did 13 years ago when this bowl pick column started.
She has thankfully been able to improve over the years, and had the best season in the history of the Plays column last year with an 11-2-1 record to go along with an overall mark of 23-18-1 in the postseason. I’m also coming into this year on a hot streak after going 2-0 in games on tournament weekend to tie the season record in almost every game 365-343-13 (86-89-1 on plays, 132-114-5 on tilt, 147-140-7 on guesses) versus the spread.
Read below for handicaps in the first 10 bowl games on the schedule this year. Check back for four more editions of this column leading up to the national title game on Monday, Jan. 8, 2024. The picks are ranked in one of the three confidence categories listed above. The lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the selected side.
Myrtle Beach Bowl 8 a.m. Saturday in Myrtle Beach, N.C.: Georgia Southern +3.5 vs. Ohio, Over/Under: 49. The Bobcats’ offense will look very different between transfer portal entries and injury absences, but the current core hasn’t materialized all year anyway. This is a fairly even game from a talent perspective, and moving 5.5 points after Ohio opened a slight favorite seems unwarranted. Lean: Ohio +3.5.
Celebration Party 9 a.m. Saturday at Atlanta: Howard +6.5 vs. Florida A&M, Over/Under: 50.5. I do not follow or hinder the Football Championship Division, and it would be disingenuous to suggest otherwise. But this bowl stood out prominently and is now part of almost all pickup sets, so I did a 10-minute crash course to try out the selection. deductive? The Rattlers’ statistical profile looks more attractive than the Bison’s, so much so that it appears they should push into double-digit favorite status. Lean: Florida A&M -6.5.
New Orleans Bowl 11:15 a.m. Saturday in New Orleans: Jacksonville State -3 vs. Louisiana, Over/Under: 59.5. This could certainly qualify as a good spot for Jacksonville State, which defied all expectations in its first year as a Football Bowl Subdivision program and clinched a postseason spot despite not initially being eligible. But is that point worth considering in what otherwise looks like an optional matchup against a more established team playing in its home state? Guess: Louisiana +3.
Cure Bowl at 12:30 PM Saturday in Orlando, Fla.: Miami (Ohio) vs. Appalachian State, Over/Under: 44.5. With Miami (Ohio) down to a third-string quarterback, this play offered great value when opening as low as Appalachian State -3 but has since adjusted in place. It’s still a bit difficult to imagine the RedHawks’ already mediocre offense at its best keeping up with the explosive Mountaineers’ offense. Lean: Appalachian State -6.5.
New Mexico Bowl at 2:45 PM Saturday in Albuquerque, New Mexico: New Mexico State -3.5 vs. Fresno State, Over/Under: 51.5. Fresno State’s biggest loss is coach Jeff Tedford, who resigned from the bowl game due to a health issue. Tedford is a quality veteran coach but moving two points above the headline number of three might overstate his importance in a game where the Bulldogs have the better roster. Play: Fresno State +3.5.
Los Angeles Bowl at 4:30 PM Saturday in Inglewood, CA: UCLA -4.5 vs. Boise State, Over/Under: 49.5. I’m betting UCLA -2.5 shortly after this game opens but I can no longer in good conscience advise standing on that side. The Bruins still have the better team but have been weakened by too many departures. There’s nothing as impactful as the color green, but the whole of it can have an impact and should prevent UCLA from putting up that many numbers. Guess: Boise State +4.5.
Independence Bowl at 6:15 PM Saturday in Shreveport, Louisiana: California +2.5 vs. Texas Tech, Over/Under: 57.5. This is where I also bet a 2.5 point favorite at the open, but strangely the line hasn’t moved much since then. It’s hard to know why, as Texas Tech lost a large number of players but also regained a number of injured players. A big part of California’s success this season has been offensive coordinator Jake Spavital who was released on bail to take the same position at Baylor. Played: Texas Tech -2.5.
Famous Roaster Bowl at 11:30 a.m. Monday in Charlotte, N.C.: Western Kentucky +2.5 vs. Old Dominion, Over/Under: 55.5. Western Kentucky is more skilled but Old Dominion has a more sound roster and runs a unique offense that is difficult to prepare for under ideal circumstances. The Hilltoppers have had a group of offensive linemen who have come out of the gate underachieving this season even at full strength, failing to cover in five of their last six games. Guess: Ancient Sovereignty -2.5.
Frisco Bowl 6pm Tuesday in Frisco, Texas: UTSA -12.5 vs. Marshall, Over/Under: 52.5. The price has gotten high but it’s hard to believe Marshall’s weak offense has a lot of prayer to keep up with UTSA. Roadrunners coach Jeff Traylor has maintained his roster well and should be motivated to win the program’s first-ever game as a fitting send-off for quarterback/program legend Frank Harris. Guess: UTSA -12.5.
Boca Raton Bowl 5pm Thursday in Boca Raton, FL: South Florida vs. Syracuse, Over/Under: 60.5. It’s been all positive lately from the Bulls’ perspective with young quarterback Byrum Brown announcing he will remain with the program, and negative from the Orange’s coaching staff and a lot of turnover on the roster. The only hesitation is that this line could have been Syracuse -10 or greater at the start of the season, so it’s hard to sell the Bulls with much confidence. Guess: South Florida +3.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow the case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeeferCase Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or
College football has long been a beloved American pastime, with millions of fans following their favorite teams and players each season. However, with the emergence of sports betting and the proliferation of bowl games, the traditional love of the game is being challenged. The tension between the excitement of bowl games and the complexities of sports betting spreads has created a divide among college football fans. In this two-part series, we will delve into this conflict and explore how it is shaping the future of the sport.