Hundreds of technical experts from many of China’s largest state-owned and private enterprises, including the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Telecom, Meituan and Baidu, gathered in Beijing last month. The purpose of the meeting was for their employees to receive training so that they could be certified as developers on Huawei’s Harmony Operation System (OS).
While most observers looked the other way, Huawei was quietly working to build an independent Chinese operating system that would not be subject to US sanctions. In the four years since the telecom giant was banned from using Google Apps, the Shenzhen-based company has made big strides toward its long-term goal: to topple Android and make HarmonyOS the default operating system in China.
Looking at smartphone sales data in China, it appears that HarmonyOS had the third largest share at 10% in the second quarter of 2023, thanks to the strong recovery in Huawei smartphone sales. Although it is still well below the 72% that Android dominates, it is not far from the 17% for iOS.
A customer looks at the newly launched Mate 60 smartphone at one of Huawei’s flagship stores after the company … [+]
If Huawei succeeds in achieving widespread adoption of its HarmonyOS system, the Chinese tech giant – and by extension China – will have a more self-reliant technology stack that is not vulnerable to US restrictions.
This scenario becomes more likely if China uses the proven “whole-of-nation approach” to achieve this goal. It would significantly reduce America’s influence over China in technology. It is possible that a decoupling between the United States and China will eventually occur, which could lead to increased global instability.
Counting the milestones of HarmonyOS over the years
There have been numerous attempts to develop operating systems, including Windows Mobile, Samsung’s Bada, Firefox OS, and Nokia’s Meego. But after initially challenging the dominant players, they all eventually faded away.
Huawei appears willing to challenge the same outcome, because it has the support of the Chinese government and a tried-and-true development model for the entire nation.
Huawei already says that more than 700 million devices (including phones, smart devices, PCs, etc.) are equipped with HarmonyOS as of August this year, with more than 2.2 million developers actively working within the ecosystem.
Huawei first revealed HarmonyOS in 2019, immediately after the company was banned from accessing Google applications. Initially, HarmonyOS was primarily deployed in smart devices such as wearables, Internet of Things (IoT) devices, and in-vehicle systems.
In 2020, the company launched the beta version of HarmonyOS 2.0 for smartphones, then rolled it out to other smartphones and tablets the following year. Starting in 2021, HarmonyOS began rapid adoption as the company sought collaborations with major Chinese state-owned and private companies.
Apps that Chinese consumers use daily, including Tencent’s WeChat, Douyin (the Chinese version of TikTok), Alibaba’s Alipay, taxi-hailing app Didi, and food delivery app Meituan, have all been created or are in the process of creating custom apps for HarmonyOS.
Furthermore, many local governments have also launched policies to support wider adoption of HarmonyOS. For example, the Shenzhen government has drawn up a plan that aims to eliminate “key throttling technologies” and seeks to “elevate HarmonyOS” to be on par with the world’s leading operating systems by 2025.
The plan’s specific incentives include encouraging government agencies to purchase HarmonyOS devices and awarding prizes for successful use cases of the HarmonyOS program.
There are growing expectations in government-led sectors, including education, financial services, transportation, public services and industrial sectors, that tasks related to HarmonyOS adoption will need to be implemented “at China speed.”
This means HarmonyOS could reach 1 billion devices next year, just five years after its birth, and momentum is sure to accelerate even further over the next several years.
Where could HarmonyOS be in five years?
To be sure, Huawei is still far behind the industry leaders. Android and iOS dominate the broader global market today, with the former owning 70.5% of shares and the latter 29%.
The 700 million devices that Huawei claims come with HarmonyOS still lag far behind those global heavyweights. The number of Android operating system users is 3.3 billion users worldwide; While Apple has 1.96 billion iOS users. Although a direct comparison doesn’t seem right given that it operates at different levels in different markets, it helps illustrate the wide gap between Huawei and its competitors.
Huawei’s plans for HarmonyOS are said to consist of two phases. The first stage is to achieve widespread adoption within China; The second phase is for HarmonyOS to spread outside China, which could benefit the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
The initial goal of the two phases is to create a “minimum viable product” for the operating system that will not cause much inconvenience to users. Currently, the HarmonyOS ecosystem offers hundreds of apps, compared to 1.6 billion apps in the Google Play Store and 1.5 billion apps in the Apple Store.
Huawei aims to revise the top 100 apps by 2025, and the top 500 apps by 2027.
A big moment will come next year, when Huawei says HarmonyOS will no longer be compatible with Android apps. The likes of Douyin and WeChat will need native HarmonyOS versions in order to be used by users with HarmonyOS devices.
The HarmonyOS logo is displayed at the Huawei Store in Shanghai, China.
This will be the first major step for HarmonyOS as it tries to go it alone, forcing app developers to adapt exclusively to its platform. Previously, Android apps were compatible with HarmonyOS.
As HarmonyOS gains more interest among Chinese government agencies, industries and private companies, Huawei will also be poised for international expansion. The Beijing-led Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) could serve as a catalyst, as state-owned enterprises in construction, logistics and transportation are likely to integrate HarmonyOS into their global operations.
It is reasonable to expect HarmonyOS to become the second largest operating system in China by taking a significant market share from Android over the next five years. Overseas, HarmonyOS can secure initial adoption in Belt and Road Initiative countries in specific sectors.
There are still many doubts about HarmonyOS
Developing an operating system requires significant investment and effort, involving billions of devices, users, and applications. Even under China’s nation-wide approach, the process will be arduous.
Ironically, the success of HarmonyOS will depend in part on the United States. If the United States relaxes export controls – for any reason – the urgent need for domestic alternatives diminishes.
Chinese private companies may not feel compelled to adopt HarmonyOS. Conversely, if US restrictions continue to increase, this could accelerate the rapid, widespread adoption of HarmonyOS.
However, Huawei always sets its sights higher. Besides HarmonyOS, Huawei is also developing advanced chipsets independent of US restrictions.
As Chinese semiconductor manufacturers innovate methods to produce Huawei’s Kirin chips, the company may be on its way to expanding beyond the shadow of US sanctions.
Finally, HarmonyOS has already integrated generative AI capabilities into its latest version in August. The AI assistant built into HarmonyOS has the ability to chat, search for information, perform translations, and provide text summaries.
With growing belief that the next generation of operating systems will rely on generative AI, Huawei’s HarmonyOS is poised to compete early and hard for a prominent position.
As one of the world’s leading telecommunications giants, Huawei has set its sights on a groundbreaking plan to phase out the use of the Android operating system. With the goal of establishing its own proprietary software platform, Huawei’s ambitious initiative represents a significant shift in the tech industry. This move has the potential to shake up the smartphone market and could have far-reaching implications for the future of mobile technology. As the company forges ahead with this bold strategy, all eyes are on Huawei as it strives to assert its presence in the highly competitive global tech landscape.