The college basketball season always presents a flurry of twists and turns that few expect — especially when March Madness comes around. This can make college basketball one of the most challenging sports to bet on.
Fortunately, we have plenty of tools available that can help us get the best college basketball betting favorites. Bart Torvik and KenPom are two excellent resources that provide insight into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team statistics as well.
Let’s check out the college basketball odds at FanDuel Sportsbook and pick some of today’s best bets using the tools mentioned.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
Best college basketball bets
St. Thomas (MIN) at No. 7 Marquette
Marquette -14.5 1H (-114)
The seventh-ranked Marquette Golden Eagles (8-2) host the St. Thomas (Min.) Tommy (6-4) in one of only two games to feature a Top 25 team. Marquette is a 25.5-point favorite while the total is set at 140.5.
We dive into alternative markets here as Markit liked to cover a 14.5 point spread in the first half.
The Golden Eagles are one of the best teams in the country, literally. They ranked fifth on KenPom (11th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 8th in adjusted defensive efficiency) despite playing the 14th toughest schedule. They have notable wins over Illinois (16th over KenPom), UCLA (42nd), Kansas (11th), and Texas (35th). Their loss came to a top 15 team in KenPom.
But more importantly, the Golden Eagles went 5-0 at home and 6-0 against teams ranked outside Quadrant 1 in the NET rankings. They dominated the poor competition at home, especially in the first half. In four home games against teams ranked outside KenPom’s top 100, Marquette entered halftime with leads of 22, 17, 16 and 28 points. They averaged 50.8 points in the first half in such games, continuing a trend of dominant early offense.
Marquette ranks 20th nationally in first-half scoring (41.5 points per game) and second in first-half scoring at home (49.0).
St. Thomas, on the other hand, ranks just 267th in first-half scoring (31.4). They’ve given up 12 fewer first-half points per game (28.0) but haven’t played anyone at Marquette’s level. The Tommys dropped to No. 218 in KenPom (219th in O-rate; 205th in D-rate), and their strength of schedule ranks 319th out of 362 Division I programs.
St. Thomas played only one top-150 team in KenPom — Portland State, which they beat by six teams on a neutral field. They have lost their only game against a Power Conference opponent — by five to lowly Cal (167th on KenPom) — and own a 2-3 record.
Simply put, Marquette is in a different stratosphere than St. Thomas and should be taken lightly, just like any other non-Power Conference opponent.
In light of the disparity in talent Marquette -25.5 (-110) It’s also an interesting bet, but I’m counting on the Golden Eagles to head into halftime with at least a 15-point lead.
Grambling State in Drake
Drake -22.5 (-120)
The roster is small tonight, but I see some value in the Drake Bulldogs (9-1) in a home game against the Grambling Tigers (2-7). Drake is a 22.5-point favorite, and the over/under is at 142.5 points.
Grambling is beat at this – plain and simple.
The Tigers have not defeated any DI opponent this season. In fact, Grambling has never gotten closer than 10 points from a DI opponent this season. The 330th ranked KenPom team played the ninth toughest, already facing four teams inside the top 100. They lost by 32 to Colorado (21), 55 to Iowa State (19), 30 to Dayton (57), and 30 to Dayton (57). 18 to Washington State (48).
That alone hurts their chances against Drake (64), but the Tigers have struggled against teams under 100, too, losing games to Delaware State (295), Sam Houston State (168), and Troy (192).
There aren’t many (if any) metrics that Grambling averages out on. They’re just outside the top 300 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, 352nd in turnover rate, and 361st in effective field goal percentage allowed.
There are only 362 DI teams!
Meanwhile, Drake continues to field a high-quality mid-major program. After making the NCAA Tournament in two of the past three seasons, the Bulldogs are off to a hot start again this year. They don’t play the toughest schedule in the country but they do have two top-100 wins over Akron (99) and Nevada (55). They were shelled by Stephen F. Austin early but have since reeled off six straight wins – four by double digits.
They’ve held up well within the metrics as well, ranking 55th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 92nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. They are one of the most efficient two-point shooting teams in the country (57.5%; 18th) and do a great job of limiting turnovers (14.1%; 22nd) while at the same time forcing turnovers themselves (20.9%; 53rd).
Grambling is competing for the worst college basketball team in the country, while Drake has a legitimate chance to make the NCAA Tournament. This shouldn’t be soon. Look for Drake to roll over and cover this 22.5-point streak.
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The above author is an employee of FanDuel and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place bets on sports betting on FanDuel. Advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the opinions of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports bets.
Looking to make some winning bets on college basketball? Look no further! Thursday, 12/14/23 has a lineup of exciting games and we’ve done the research to bring you the best bets of the day. Whether you’re looking to bet on the spread, over/under, or moneyline, we’ve got you covered with our top picks for Thursday’s college basketball action. So sit back, relax, and let us guide you to some winning wagers on the hardwood.